Hey it’s Summer! Welcome back to Week 4!
The market looks unstoppable right now, but some of the moves we’re seeing — like gold’s crash and meme stocks spiking — feel a bit too familiar. This week’s issue dives into what’s driving the rally and why caution still matters even in a bull trend.
Starting this week, I’ll be moving my Trading Journal & Portfolio Tracking section to a subscriber-only section for those who want deeper insights.
Market Overview — (Oct 20 – 24, 2025)
Price | Weekly Change | |
|---|---|---|
S&P500 | $6,791.69 | +1.52% |
NASDAQ | $23,204.87 | +1.15% |
Dow Jones | $47,207.12 | +1.93% |
10 Year Interest Rate | $3.997 | -0.2% |
Bitcoin | $110,760.40 | +1.9% |
Gold | $4,099.26 | -3.7% |
Data is provided by Google Finance
*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of Friday 9:00pm ET
This week showed steady gains across all three major indexes. The S&P 500 rose 1.52%, the Nasdaq gained 1.15%, and the Dow Jones jumped nearly 2%, hitting new record highs for all three. The rally was largely driven by cooling CPI inflation data, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might begin cutting rates in the near future.
Bitcoin fluctuated throughout the week after recovering from a sharp 10% dip last week, ending up about 1.9% gain this week. Gold, on the other hand, fell sharply — dropping from its all-time high of around $4,300 per ounce to about $4,100, as investors took profits following the recent surge.
Weekly Poll 🗳️
What’s your outlook on the stock market for the next 6 months?
US Markets 🇺🇸
Stocks rally to record highs as inflation cools, with the S&P 500 up roughly 1 % this week. Softer-than-expected CPI data boosted bets that the Federal Reserve’s next move will be a rate cut.
Powell hints tightening cycle may soon end, saying policy is now “well into restrictive territory.” Markets see the first rate cut as early as March 2026.
Treasury yields retreat amid dovish shift, with the 10-year yield falling below 4.2 %. Lower yields helped lift tech and real-estate stocks.
Corporate earnings season beats expectations, led by strong reports from major tech and financial firms. Roughly 78 % of S&P 500 firms have topped EPS estimates so far.
Energy and industrials lead sector gains, reflecting optimism in U.S. manufacturing data and higher oil-demand forecasts. Utilities and staples lagged.
Government shutdown delays key data, including jobs and GDP releases, leaving investors reliant on private surveys for macro signals.
Global Markets 🌍
Global equity fund inflows surge as US-China trade tensions ease, as investors poured about US$11.03 billion into global equity funds during the week through Oct 22, driven by hopes of a trade thaw and strong US earnings.
European shares close at record high on US data, trade hopes, with the STOXX 600 and FTSE 100 both hitting all-time highs after a softer-than-expected US inflation print and improving trade outlook.
Asia shares pulled higher by Nikkei surge, China GDP beats, as Japan’s market jumped ~2.8% and China’s Q3 GDP came in ahead of expectations (1.1% quarter-on-quarter) though annual growth remains weak at ~4.8%.
International Monetary Fund urges Asia to cut trade barriers to beat US tariffs, calling for deeper regional integration to protect Asian economies from US/China trade shocks and boost GDP by up to ~1.4%.
India demand cools after festive rush; price fall propels buying elsewhere, with physical gold demand in India dipping as buyers await further price falls, while China and Singapore increase buying as premiums adjust.
UK inflation worries will wipe away rate-cut hopes, with hotter-than-expected inflation in the UK undermining expectations of a near-term cut by the Bank of England and adding pressure to European bond yields.
My Take for This Week 📝
It’s starting to feel like we’re back in a bull market, indexes keep breaking new highs, inflation data came in softer, and even the Fed seems ready to wrap up its tightening cycle. But when everything starts going up at once, we need to be cautious. Gold hitting an all-time high of $4,300 before plunging 5% in a single day, something that’s almost unheard of in such a traditionally stable asset, is a reminder that we’re entering a phase of euphoria mixed with fragility.
We’re also seeing strange behavior in speculative corners again — meme stocks like $BYND ( ▲ 0.77% ) and $RGTI ( ▲ 3.28% ) popping double digits with no fundamental catalysts. That’s the same kind of market psychology we saw in 2021: fear of missing out overpowering risk awareness. When even bad or no-news names are rallying, it’s often a late-cycle signal rather than the start of a new one.
At the same time, there are legitimate tailwinds:
Earnings have been strong, especially from large-caps like Microsoft and JPMorgan.
Yields have eased on expectations that the Fed’s next move will be a cut, which supports equities.
Global sentiment improved as trade tensions between the U.S. and China cooled and Europe hit record highs.
Still, valuations are stretched, and liquidity is tightening quietly in the background. It’s not the time to fight the trend — but it is the time to know why you’re in each position. If you can’t explain in one sentence why you own a stock beyond “it’s going up” it’s probably time to think about it again. A short-term correction wouldn’t be surprising. Keep participating, but stay selective and hedged.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the opinions expressed here are based on my personal research and portfolio decisions. Investing in securities involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research or consult with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.